If you live in the states of VA, MD, PA, WVA, DEL, NJ and beyond, you are affected by all of the Data Center sprawl — proliferation — happening all across Virginia, particularly in Northern Virginia. Affected AS WELL by the web of transmission lines and substations snaking across the land and through communities to power all of that Data Center industrial development. This affects all of Virginia AND all neighboring states. Bottom line – all that is, and will be, planned ends up affecting YOU – it’s coming to YOUR pocketbook, and for YOUR land.
PEC map of PJM data center planning initiative proposals
Dominion Energy’s Data Center Load Forecasting Process
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THE LATEST:
$5B first scenarios APPROVED 12/11/23 by PJM Board
PJM TEAC 2022 Window 3 Final Decision 121123
In this March 27, 2023 document PJM declares in writing on every page that the transmission expansion plans are primarily driven by data centers in Northern Virginia: PJM Regional Transmission Expansion Planning Update (pjm.com) This outlines the Purpose, Objective, Requirements (pages 3-7).
PJM Preferred 500kV and 765kV Preferred Scenarios & Short List of Proposals – 10/03/23 The 500 kV scenario was chosen for the first approval by PJM Board in Dec. 2024. PJM TEAC meetings made it clear that PJM will be pursuing the 765kV preferred scenario in future RTEP windows.
SEE ALL THE LATEST LETTERS SENT TO PJM regarding RTEP 2022 W3- LINKS BELOW
(All historical documentation included below in reverse chronological order)
The ~$5B 500kV immediate solution (5 year completion goal) – APPROVED by the PJM Board on Dec. 11, 2023 – is just the “first bite of the apple” for MANY MORE transmission lines coming to our region – all because of data center approvals. Refer to these PJM documents:
11/28/23: PJM 2022 Window 3 Reliability Analysis Report Word doc
11/30/23: PJM 2022 Window 3 Powerpoint Reliability Analysis deck
11/28/23: PJM 2022 Window 3 Constructability and Financial Analysis Report
11/28/23: PJM’s Role in Regional Planning/2022 Window 3
See more in 10/31 document – details on pages 25-63 here. PJM focus is on these clusters:
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(All other historical documentation can be accessed below in reverse chronological order.)
Subsequent PJM TEAC Transmission Expansion Windows will put forward even more transmission and substation expansion proposals (many from the initial 72) which will affect different and additional areas and take longer to construct. PJM has communicated that multiple projects to resolve grid issues, caused by data center demand, will be pursued into the future.
If you are concerned about PJM’s transmission and substation expansion plans caused by explosive data center growth (access details below) Outline your concerns to these: All correspondence written to the BOM (not to Anders) in letter format. Sample:
Date
VIA ELECTRONIC MAIL
The PJM Board of Managers
Mark Takahashi, Chairman
Manu Asthana, PJM President and CEO
PJM Interconnection L.L.C.
2750 Monroe Boulevard
Audubon, Pennsylvania 19408
RE: PJM 2022 Window 3 Project
LETTERS TO PJM REGARDING THE 2022 WINDOW 3 RECOMMENDED SOLUTION:
20231128-opsi-letter-re-grid-reliability.ashx (pjm.com)
20231207 Talen Energy response to PJM letter to Sierra Club
Md Office of People’s Counsel letter regarding PJM 2022 Window 3
PJM TIMELINE:
Oct. 3: Outline top 3 “scenarios”- made up from 72 proposals in 2022 RTEP Window 3 announced in March 2023
Oct. 3 – 31: Stakeholder feedback on 3 possible “scenarios”
Oct. 31: “First Read” – Virtual review of PJM TEAC $5.5B chosen scenario from 2022 Window 3 proposals – West, East, South and Data Center Alley “Clusters”
Oct. 31 – Dec. 4 2023: Stakeholder email input to PJM Board on TEAC chosen scenario announced on 10/31.
Dec. 5: PJM TEAC “Second Read” – TEAC bring final chosen scenario for first “most immediate solution” to PJM Board
Week of Dec 11, 2023: PJM Board approval on first most immediate solution
After PJM Board approval, winning providers take filings to their respective State Commissions (ie VA SCC)
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NEXT BITE OF THE APPLE: 2023 RTEP Window 1 – Proposals can be found here. PJM’s next 2023 Window 1 has 20 proposals – 6 proposals are for 765kV transmission line and substation additions. Per PJM: “We have decided not to take any of the 2023 W1 Selected Proposals to the Dec Board Meeting. Instead, the 2023 W1 projects will go to the Feb 2024 board meeting for approval. The 2023 W1 Projects will continue to show up at the Scheduled TEAC meetings in Dec 2023, Jan 2024 and possibly Feb 2024 as they become ready for 1st and 2nd reads before the TEAC.”
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Connecting the Dots. What Will Be On New PJM Lines?
PW Times: Data center-driven power crunch prompts for new, high voltage lines
PJM’s plans are to address today’s overwhelming load from data centers – load from in-service data centers and forecasted for already-approved data centers.
The “2022 RTEP Window 3” plans ARE NOT for data center applications which are not-yet-approved. Those data center applications will REQUIRE EVEN MORE transmission lines and substations to run across our communities.
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In 2022, PJM, our energy RTO (regional transmission organization), started putting together plans for massive power expansions to address violations occurring on the grid which could cause blackouts – expansions necessary primarily because of all the data centers being brought onto the grid in Northern Virginia — particularly data centers in Prince William County approved and supported by our current Chair and majority Supervisors on the Board. (See PWC Overview)
PJM’s public (but redacted) documentation on their proposed expanded grid, accessible from their website, mentions ‘PJM’s Data Center Planning Initiative’ and calls out ‘Northern Virginia’s Dominion Data Center Alley’ which “…will require major …reinforcements.”
The plans (details below (2022 RTEP Window 3 – 72 proposals) are cataclysmic and mind-boggling – Bringing through and across the Eastern/MidAtlantic region, into our neighborhoods (details follow below):
- MULTIPLE NEW &/or rebuilt transmission lines
- Most 500kV
- Even a new 765kV
- Some rebuilt and new 230kV lines (BUT NOT ALL)
- MULTIPLE upgraded &/or new 500kV substations
- NEW 500kV Transmission Lines: in ~43 of the 72 proposals
- NEW ROW (Right of Way) &/or Land Acquisitions:
- Anywhere there are NEW or widened routes or substations.
- Assumed to be a factor in the majority of the proposals.
- Much of the ROW and Land Acquisition information is silent in the proposal or redacted from public view
- NEW 500kV Sub or Switching Stations: in ~37 of the 72 proposals
NOTE: These PJM plans DO NOT reflect all the other additional new 230kV transmission line and substation projects required to power both the under-construction and the already-approved-yet-to-be-started data centers in Prince William and surrounding counties. Those data center facilities will connect to this expanded 500kV+ grid with EVEN MORE required transmission lines and substations.
As stated directly by PJM representatives, the grid is proposed to be expanded “because of data center load growth.”
ACCESS the full 72 proposal list – follow these directions:
Once at the page: Click on the top arrow for: 2022 Window 3 Redacted Proposals.
Go to this link: PJM – Redacted Public Proposals for Current and Closed Windows. SELECT 2022 Window 3 Redacted Proposals at top of list – click on the little arrow.
These 72 redacted proposals/bids from multiple providers (not all Dominion), all in the PJM region, are to address PJM’s direction for expansion of the grid due to the 2022 reliability violations and their data center load forecasts.
Competitive bids: Many TO (Transmission Operator) energy providers have submitted bids to PJM in this 2022 RTEP Window 3 (72 proposals). Not all work possibly to be awarded in the Dominion Zone will be done by Dominion Energy. Bids from Dominion Energy and their competitors:
- AEP – AEP.com
- Exelon – Exelon Corporation – Home – Exelon
- First Energy – FirstEnergy Corp. Home
- LS Power – LS Power | Innovation and Investment in Energy
- Nextera – NextEra Energy
- PPL – PPL Corporation (pplweb.com)
- PSEG – PSE&G (pseg.com)
- Transource – About Us (transourceenergy.com)
Click on each project number at the left in the list for all redacted information provided to the public on each proposal.
PROPOSALS – These proposals will be acted upon OVER TIME, in three PJM TEAC Expansion “Windows” per year!
Not all 72 proposals, or all components in the 72 proposals, will be selected. Additionally, some components and their costs are repeated and counted multiple times across multiple proposals.
NET TOTAL ESTIMATED COSTS = $51.1 BILLION ($51,192,146,194.00)
(Total represents net total IF all components and all proposals were implemented as presented. This will NOT be the case.)
Individual proposal estimated costs start from around $200+K and go as high as $3.9 Billion.
(At least 7 proposed solutions are for complete or partial undergrounding of NEW 500kV transmission lines: #419, 445, 548, 691, 728, 846, 858. Also 3 partial undergrounding of NEW 230kV: #385, 564, 948)
The proposals target project durations up to 80 months or more. The majority are 36-45 months. Earliest projected construction start date is January 2024 – not likely.
If you don’t need to see maps, here is a spreadsheet listing all the proposals and providing details: 72 Proposals KSheehan 092323 pdf
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Overviews of all 72 proposals in 2022 RTEP Window 3:
The “First Bite” $5.5B immediate (5 year) solution approved by PJM Board 12/11/23 took aspects/proposals from each group. See full details of the “first bite” on pages 25-63 here.
More of the 72 proposals will be considered in future PJM RTEP (Regional Transmission Expansion Plan) Windows (3 Windows per year).
PRINCE WILLIAM Co VA <–Click on link to access overview. Map with each proposal.
PROPOSALS = 15 ESTIMATED COST: $19.5B
LOUDOUN Co VA (PWC not in these) <–Click on link to access overview. Map with each proposal.
PROPOSALS = 28 ESTIMATED COST: $26.7b
FAUQUIER & FAIRFAX (PWC, Loudoun not in these) <–Click on link to access overview. Map with each proposal.
FAUQUIER PROPOSALS: Fauquier = 1
PROPOSAL ESTIMATED TOTAL COSTS = $320,266,203.00
FAIRFAX PROPOSALS = 2
PROPOSALS ESTIMATED TOTAL COSTS = $895,459,401
ALL OTHER VA COUNTIES & OTHER STATES (PWC, Loudoun, Fauquier, Fairfax not in these) <–Click on link to access overview. Map with each proposal.
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- VA counties: Amherst, Augusta, Albemarle, Bedford, Botetourt, Buckingham, Campbell, Caroline, Charlottesville, Culpeper, Fluvanna, Franklin, Fredericksburg, Giles, Gordonsville, Habersham, Lexington, Louisa, Lynchburg, Nelson, North Anna, Orange, Petersburg, Rockbridge, Stafford
- MD, PA
PROPOSALS = 26
PROPOSALS ESTIMATED TOTAL COSTS = $3.6 BILLION ($3,644,251,790.00)
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MORE DOCUMENTS:
PJM Maps of CURRENT Transmission Grid – From PJM 2022 RTEP (Regional Transmission Expansion Plan) report dated March 14, 2023: The “Data Center Planning Initiative” plans will ADD MORE on top of the grid outlined here.
Section 1 – Page 2:
Section 6 – Page 221: DOES NOT SHOW 230kV TRANSMISSION LINES AND SUBSTATIONS
HISTORY OF THE PJM “DATA CENTER PLANNING” INITIATIVE – In Reverse Chronological Order:
11/28/23: PJM 2022 Window 3 Reliability Analysis FINAL – To be submitted to PJM Board week of 12/11
11/28/23: PJM 2022 Window 3 Constructability and Financial Analysis Report
11/28/23: PJM’s Role in Regional Planning/2022 Window 3
PJM INITIAL Transmission Lines to Address Data Center Growth – PJM deck dated 10/31/23 Page 28. See full details on pages 25-63. PJM focus is on the clusters on page 25.
PJM 2022 Window 3 Reliability Analysis Complete Deck – 10/3/23. Details on their selection timeline on page 7.
PJM Preferred 500kV and 765kV Preferred Scenarios & Short List of Proposals – 10/03/23
MAPS of RTEP 2002 Window 3 – Data Center Planning Initiative – NONE OF THE MAPS ARE DEFINITIVE OF SCOPE. ONLY THE CONTENT OF EACH PROPOSAL FOUND HERE OFFICIALLY DEPICTS THE SCOPE.
August 30, 2023: 20230808-item-07—reliability-analysis-update.ashx (pjm.com) PJM added missing maps, made some updates and corrections. There are still errors in these maps.
August 25, 2023: 20230808-item-07—reliability-analysis-update.ashx (pjm.com) PJM added missing maps. But there are errors in the maps which were provided and there are still some missing.
July 11, 2023: 20230711-item-09—reliability-analysis-update.ashx (pjm.com) Only 33 of the 72. Many of the 33 maps in this deck are incorrect – do not match the scope of the proposal.
PJM Regional Transmission Expansion Planning Update (pjm.com) Powerpoint deck (March 27, 2023) explaining the 2022 RTEP Window 3 initiative – Purpose, Objective, Requirements (pages 3-7). Data Centers a factor on every page.
PJM – Immediate-Need Projects The Immediate Need project, b3718, has already been awarded to Dominion and is underway. It primarily adds enhancements to Loudoun Co. infrastructure to address immediate anticipated summer power issues.
PJM Explanation of Immediate Needs – July 2022
PJM 2023 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan – dated March 7, 2024
PJM 2022 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan – dated March 14, 2023
Section 1 – Page 2 — PJM Backbone Transmission System (as of March 2023)
Section 6.11 – Page 221 — PJM Service Area in Virginia – map of 345, 500, 765 kV transmission lines (as of March 2023).
Page 44: (emphasis added)
“In the PJM 2022 Load Forecast Report, Dominion requested that PJM consider a forecast adjustment to account for the growth of data centers in northern Virginia. This adjustment has been in place in some form since the 2014 Load Forecast Report. The rationale for making an adjustment for data centers is that these centers have a load impact that is disproportionate with their economic impact. Data centers generally require minimum staffing and thus would not have a significant impact on economic variables, but do have a considerable impact on energy demand.”
DOMINION IRP:
Dominion IRP – 2023 Integrated Resource Plan Filed May 1, 2023
Dominion IRP – 2022 Update to the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan Filed September 1, 2022
Dominion IRP – 2021 Update to the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan Filed September 1, 2021
Page 7
“Forecast timing. PJM issues its load forecast report once a year in late December or early January. By the time the forecast is utilized in the Company’s modeling, the assumptions, which are mostly locked in by September of the prior year, are about nine months old. Significant developments have occurred in the past which makes the forecast obsolete. For example, between the fall of 2020 and the summer of 2021, data center growth occurred faster than projected; and the pandemic impacts on overall loads significantly declined from the initial pandemic periods. Therefore, lack of a full forecast update close to the time of its use renders the forecast outdated and forces its use when the underlying assumptions are no longer valid.”
Page 8
“Forecast translation from DOM Zone to DOM LSE” (DOM Zone (major parts of Virginia, part of NC); DOM LSE (Dominion Energy Load Serving Entity))
“…the Company believes that the 2021 PJM Load Forecast presents an understated view of future load growth….”
Page 29
“• Data center sales, energy, and peak demand are now being forecasted by the Company as a standalone category and are being applied to the Company’s sales, peak, and energyforecasts as an exogenous adjustment. This action is consistent with a recommendation provided by Itron Inc., in its review of the Company’s load forecasting methodology, as discussed in the 2020 Plan.”
Forecast load-forecast-supplement.ashx (pjm.com) January 2023
This PJM document (published Jan 2023) explains why so many projects are needed and how PJM is doing its forecasting. See “Exogenous Factors,” pages 18-21 for details on how data centers are factored in.
Forecast modeling pjm-model-review-final-report-from-itron.ashx
PJM contracted with Itron in 2022 to update PJM’s procedures for hourly modeling. In this report, Itron outlines “Modeling Issues” on pages 46-52. See pages 51-52 for explanation on how PJM depends on Dominion Energy for the 5 year data center load projection.
Re: failures generated on the grid:
“Meeting the customer’s power demands is crucial for energy companies, even when unexpected and consecutive failures are present. This task has considerably increased its complexity due to the high integration of renewable energies and their intermittent behaviors. Therefore, it is important to achieve reliable power supply based on a criterion closer to real-life system operations and capable of addressing consecutive failures. The N-1-1 contingency involves the loss of a single transmission line or generation unit, followed by systems adjustments. Afterward, the power system experiences a subsequent loss of an additional generation unit or transmission line.”
Reliable Power Grid Expansion Considering N-1-1 Contingencies
Undergrounding Transmission – The Ray | Let’s drive the future.
Non-profit that has researched and is advocating for undergrounding of transmission lines:
2023 Quarterly State of the Market Report for PJM: January through June (monitoringanalytics.com)