February 23, 2023 Dan Rabb, Bisnow Data Centers Reporter
The result of a small-town election in Virginia could spell big trouble for data center developers in the industry’s most important market.
Prince William County
A race to replace a Prince William County lawmaker who resigned over involvement in a massive data center project became a referendum on the flood of large-scale data center development poised to turn the county into the world’s largest digital infrastructure hub. The side opposing data centers won Tuesday’s election, as Republican Bob Weir handily defeated Democrat Kerensa Sumers for a seat on the county’s board of supervisors.
Weir campaigned on curtailing what he portrayed as unrestrained data center development in rural and residential areas and will now sit on the board charged with approving those projects.
While Weir’s win isn’t a death sentence for pending data center projects in the county, industry insiders and opponents of data center projects both see the result as evidence that the sudden influx of data centers is broadly unpopular with residents. There is a sense that opposition to these massive data center projects can be a winning political issue that motivates voters. The political sands may be shifting in a county that had been welcoming to the data center industry. And with thousands of acres of new development still awaiting approval, developers are paying attention.
“It feels like Prince William County has made a decision about their position on data centers going forward,” said Michael Rechtin, a partner and head of the data center practice at Seyfarth Shaw, who represents a range of data center developers and operators on development deals. “I think this is on people’s radar because the margin of victory was so large. There really wasn’t any kind of public support for data centers.”
Weir, who spent decades in planning and governance roles in the town of Haymarket, captured more than 60% of the vote in the race for the Gainesville District Supervisor seat, according to preliminary results. While the district has traditionally leaned red, the race was characterized less by traditional partisan divisions than by a sharp split in the two candidates’ approaches to managing the torrent of proposed data center development in the county.
While Sumers touted the tax revenue data centers would bring to the county, Weir’s campaign centered around curtailing what he called “out of control” data center development in rural and residential areas. He pushed for higher tax rates for data center developers and highlighted the environmental impacts that widespread data center building would bring.
“You don’t put industrial uses next to residential uses or schools — they’re simply not compatible,” Weir told a candidate forum in early February. “But the county seems to be chasing the almighty dollar and leaving those considerations aside.”
Campaign contributions to both Weir and Sumers reflect the central role of the data center debate in the race. Sumers’ top donors included the developers behind the county’s two largest data center projects and a major construction trade group. Weir’s largest contributors were members of homeowners associations that have led opposition to those same projects.
Indeed, heated debate over the scale of proposed development has become an above-the-fold issue in Prince William County, which is expected to surpass neighboring Loudoun County as the world’s largest data center hub.
Much of the controversy has centered around a proposed data center district known as the PW Digital Gateway, which would open 2,139 mostly rural acres to development in the Gainesville District. County supervisors approved changes to the county’s land use master plan in November that allowed the project to move forward despite furious opposition from local residents and community groups.
Prince William County Planning Commission
A map showing the boundaries of the 2,139-acre PW Digital Gateway area.
The Gainesville board seat won by Weir has been vacant since December, when Republican Peter Candland resigned due to his involvement in PW Digital Gateway.
But PW Digital Gateway isn’t the only project to prompt outrage and organized opposition from residents. In Bristow, a proposal by Stanley Martin Homes to build 4M SF of data centers on 270 acres, a project the developer calls the Devlin Technology Park, has also sparked protest and organized opposition from community groups. The board is expected to vote on the project in the weeks ahead. In total, more than 24M SF of data center development is in the Prince William County pipeline, according to Cushman & Wakefield.
Those leading the opposition to projects like PW Digital Gateway and Devlin Technology Park touted Weir’s win as evidence that the industry’s expansion in Prince William County is broadly unpopular with residents, and that pushback to major projects is coming from more than just a vocal minority.
“We’ve been called a group of militant activists, and I think this election showed that’s not the case,” said Bethany Kelley, an organizer with Say No To Devlin Tech Park. “This was really the first chance residents have had to get out and vote and show they’re opposed to this.”
The addition of Weir won’t immediately shift the balance of power on a board that has typically voted 5-2 on data center decisions. But Kelley says Tuesday’s results show that unease over unrestrained data center development and the county’s transformation are issues that can drive voters to the polls, citing higher-than-expected turnout in an off-cycle special election.
If supervisors see that their votes for controversial data center projects are a liability, Kelley said, they might not be quite so gung-ho about approving them.
Kelley also expects to see more candidates focused on limiting data center development run in future election cycles now that there’s evidence that the issue is a winning one with voters.
“This clearly showed that the public is involved and paying attention,” she said.
Some data center industry veterans echo these same sentiments. Seyfarth Shaw’s Rechtin said he sees the development process getting tougher in Prince William County, as well as in other locations where developers are planning data centers near residential communities or other sensitive areas.
“I think what you’re going to see is politicians take this up in other locations,” Rechtin said. “I love this industry personally, but you need to start to think more about building in secondary and tertiary markets that are more welcoming and away from populated areas as much as you can get away with.”
With the political landscape shifting, Rechtin said developers need to be careful about how they structure property deals in places like Prince William County, ideally assuring that permitting and entitlements are settled before closing. He also sees the increased uncertainty tempering skyrocketing land prices in the county.
Still, some developers and Prince William County officials caution against reading too much into the results of Tuesday’s election.
“I think it’s hard to call this a referendum on anything,” Prince William County Board of County Supervisors Chair-At-Large Ann Wheeler, who has been generally supportive of the industry’s expansion in the county, said in an email to Bisnow.
She lamented what she calls a flawed narrative around opposition to data centers but said Tuesday’s results aren’t indicative of attitudes across the county.
“The Gainesville District is an historically right-leaning district with a long history of election results like this,” Wheeler said. “It certainly doesn’t represent the larger Prince William County electorate. I do think that maybe opposition to some local development projects in the region may have increased turnout on the right as NIMBYism is alive and well in PWC, but I would hardly call this a referendum on those projects.”
CORRECTION, FEB. 23, 5:20 P.M. ET: A previous version of this story misstated the number of acres in the PW Digital Gateway district. This story has been updated.
Contact Dan Rabb at dan.rabb@bisnow.com