https://thederecho.blogspot.com/2019/12/this-does-not-compute.html
Next week, just as the lame duck BOCS heads for the door, it will consider the Gainesville Crossing rezoning application for a data center complex outside of the Data Center Opportunity Zone.
The applicant asserts that the 4.5 million square foot facility will generate an estimated load of 300 MVA. So as not to get too geeky and have to guess the value of currently unknown variables such as the power factor, we will assume that the power factor is unity (1) and thus mva=mw, it may be a little off plus or minus but it’s close enough for government work. Under this scenario, the complex would require 300 MW of power or 1 MW for every 15,000 square feet. The question that arises is whether that estimate is similar to the requirement of other local data centers.
The SCC record on the Amazon site is clear, 440,000 sq. ft required 120 MW or 1 MW for every 3,666.67 sq. ft. If that formula were applied to the Gainesville Crossing site (4,500,000/3,666.67) the estimated load would increase from 300 MW to 1,227.27 MW.
Interestingly, VA-1, the first building on the Iron Mountain campus on Hayden Road is reported to be a 165,000 sq ft facility using 10.5 MW of power or a requirement of 1 MW for every 15,714.29 sq. ft. Applying that formula would put the Gainesville Crossing load at 286.36 MW, very much in line with the applicant’s estimate. Why the difference, it could be as simple as the facility only having a reported 66,000 usable square feet of its 165,000 gross square footage. That of course changes the formula to 1 MW for every 6,285.71 for every sq. ft., increasing the potential Gainesville Crossing load to 715.91 MW. I suspect the second scenario is closer to the truth as the Amazon facility has far more than 40% of its building square footage in the usable category as it doesn’t have all the offices and other administrative spaces that occupy much of the Iron Mountain site.
Now that’s a still quite a range and in the Amazon example, provides a pretty alarming number. Generally, I don’t like to rely on simply one exemplar so I turned on my Google machine and looked for other exemplars. Not surprisingly, that information is readily available.
Also not surprisingly, the average ranges were a little tighter but still significantly greater than that estimated by the Gainesville Crossing applicant.
If one calculates the average for the “Top Data Center Providers in Northern Virginia” the formula derived is 1 MW for every 7,062.66 sq. ft. (5747236/813.75) and the average for the “Largest Data Centers in Northern Virginia” is 1 MW for every 11,387.52 sq. ft., both of which appear significantly more efficient than the Amazon example but nevertheless still raising the required power for Gainesville Crossing well above it’s estimated 300 MW. In the Top Data Center scenario, 637.15 MW (4,500,000/7,062.66) and in the Largest Data Center scenario, 395.17 MW (4,500,000/11,387.52).
To review here are some of the different scenarios for the Gainesville Crossing electrical load:
Applicant estimate: 300 MW
Amazon scenario: 1,227.27 MW
Iron Mountain scenario I: 286.36 MW
Iron Mountain scenario II: 715.91 MW
Top Data Center scenario: 637.15 MW
Largest Data Center scenario: 395.17 MW
So what’s the point, as I noted previously, someone smarter than I will have to explain how a facility more than 10 times the size of the Amazon project require only 2.5 times the power but at this point one thing is clear, the true power requirement is unclear.
Why, well I would suggest that the hasty processing of the application is partly to blame. Although the rezoning was initially filed in November of 2017, it wasn’t converted into a PBD request for virtually exclusive data center use until some time in June or July, less than six months ago.
Further, at the time the November 8, 2019 Staff Report for the PC meeting was issued, staff apparently hadn’t bothered to look into the electrical load requirement despite the application being outside of the Data Center Opportunity Zone, you know, the whole reason the Data Center Opportunity Zone was created.
Now before anybody gets their knickers in twist because I am attacking staff’s competence and credibility again (and yes I am speaking principally to Victor and Ruth), note that staff report and associated documentation contains no discussion or mention of the power requirement. It is not until a week later, November 14, 2019 that Dominion’s Economic Development Department (not its engineering or load department) issued a letter with a brief and incomplete description of the estimated load and manner in which power would be supplied.
The long and short of it, this application is not yet ready for prime time and should be deferred until the County has been provided a much clearer picture.
If the BOCS does not, I fear a repeat of the Amazon Power Line fiasco, the only difference being any proposed new transmission line will almost certainly run through some portion of Heritage Hunt.
If that happens, I will happily supply the new addresses and assumed names of those soon to be former BOCS members likely to vote in favor of the application.